Russian President Vladimir Putin recently made a bold statement, claiming he had no choice but to break the 2014 and 2015 ceasefires and launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In an interview with Russian journalist Pavel Zarubin on December 22, Putin explained that, in hindsight, he believes Russia should have started the invasion even earlier—though he couldn’t pinpoint exactly when.
Putin’s reasoning? He argued that Ukraine and the West had misled Russia and failed to stick to the Minsk agreements, giving the West plenty of time to prepare Ukraine for military action against Russia. He said Russia should have acted sooner and “chosen the right moment” to invade rather than waiting until it felt like there was no other option.
However, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) pointed out that Putin conveniently left out a key fact: Ukraine had been strengthening its military as a defensive measure in response to Russia’s actions, like annexing Ukrainian land in 2014 and starting the war in eastern Ukraine.
The Minsk II Accords, which were supposed to help mediate the conflict, were actually quite favorable to Russia. They set up a ceasefire that Russian-backed forces repeatedly broke, with Russian support. Despite this, Putin continues to blame Ukraine and the West for the situation.
In a similar vein, during a live broadcast on December 19, Putin once again claimed he would have invaded earlier if he had the chance. He also argued that Ukraine hadn’t followed the Minsk agreements and said Russia’s invasion in February 2022 was “spontaneous.”
Putin even went as far as to threaten more missile strikes on Ukraine, specifically mentioning the medium-range ballistic missile, Oreshnik. He claimed Russia was winning on the battlefield and would eventually outlast both Ukraine and the West.
The ISW has urged Western leaders to step up their support for Ukraine, ensuring Russia is defeated and the war comes to an end.
