Politically Speaking – February 23, 2016

February 23, 2016

Up next on Tuesday, February 23 the GOP caucus in Nevada. But looking back, last Saturday morning the countdown began. Between the Nevada Democratic caucus and the South Carolina Republican primary it was a busy weekend that offered few surprises with the exception of Jeb Bush suspending his bid for the White House. In my opinion, it was long overdue, and with that said, is this the end of the Bush dynasty? I’ve said all along we didn’t need another Bush, and we sure don’t need another Clinton.

Looking at Nevada and the Democratic caucus, just 30 days ago — one short month ago — Hillary was 25% ahead of Bernie Sanders, and Saturday she was in a fight for her life. At the close of the Nevada Democratic caucus it was very tight. Clinton carried 52.6% and Sanders ended at 47.3%. That’s close! So win, lose or draw, Sanders is alive and well.

Hillary just wants to clinch the race to the nomination; she wants it over. But that’s not going to happen quickly, if at all. Hillary carried the union households — thanks to Harry Reid — and women, while Bernie Sanders carried the young voters, the first timers.

This election was supposed to be an easy walk for Hillary into the White House, and at this point, it’s been anything but easy! Keep in mind, Bernie is in for the long haul. This is the year of the outsider, and Hillary is anything but an outsider. As for money, Bernie is easily matching Hillary dollar for dollar. Bernie’s people like his plan. Hillary doesn’t have a plan except to get what she wants.

So the big question remains, is she in it for us or is she in it for herself? I found it interesting that not too long ago she admitted many were asking that very question.
She also said a race against Trump would be quite a showdown! Really, Hillary!!!

On to South Carolina. With a record turn out, Trump walked away with 50 delegates while receiving 32.5% of the vote. Marco Rubio came in second, receiving 22.5% of the vote, Ted Cruz was third at 22.3%, Bush had 7.8%, Kasich had 7.6% and Carson had 7.2%.

So what really happened on the GOP side is it became a three-person race, with Trump the front runner and a toss up between Cruz and Rubio — even after Trump’s disagreement with the Pope. I have to point out I like John Kasich as well as his track record as a governor.

But keep in mind, I’ve said it time and time again, if Trump takes South Carolina there’s no stopping him. Well, he took it, and there’s no stopping him. South Carolina will shape the rest of the race, and even with Rubio’s showing in South Carolina and major endorsements, my prediction is he’ll remain a distant second and Cruz a distant third as a liar (the GOP’s own Hillary Clinton).

So with all that said, the Tuesday GOP caucus in Nevada should be interesting. My prediction is Trump will take it! Saturday, February 27 is the Democratic Primary in South Carolina. I believe that between March 1 and March 15 will tell the story. My prediction is Trump will be the GOP nominee. So Hillary, you may get your showdown.
Either way, neither Clinton nor Sanders is a match for Trump.

On to the 67th Annual Marion County Lincoln Day Dinner, John and I attended last Saturday evening. We found it enlightening and enjoyed the speakers, especially our  State Representative John Cavaletto, as he explained the dysfunction of the State and the problems between Governor Rauner and Speaker of the House Michael Madigan. But more on that later.

There was a straw poll taken with the huge crowd in attendance as per the Republican Presidential candidates, which indicated where Marion County sits. Trump came in at 31%. Cruz came in at 24%. Rubio came in at 22%. Kasich came in at 11%. Carson came in at 7%. Jeb came in at 4%. It’s not so different from the national polls. I would be interested if there has been a straw poll on the Democratic side. Someone let me know.

On to Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia’s funeral mass which was televised on Saturday. It was a moving ceremony, a celebration of a great man’s life. Thousands of people paid their final respects to Supreme Court Justice Scalia.

“God bless Dad for his faith,” said the Rev. Paul Scalia, one of  Justice Scalia’s nine children, who led the service at the Basilica of the National Shrine of the Immaculate Conception in Washington. The two hour long service was attended by such leaders in government as Vice President Joe Biden, former Vice President Dick Cheney and former GOP Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, just to name a few. Among them was Justice Clarence Thomas who read from the New Testament. Barack and Michelle Obama did not attend the service.  I definitely felt the President and First Lady should have been there. They did attend with 6,000 others who paid tribute to Scalia on Friday at the Supreme Court Building.
But don’t fret, White House spokesmen spun Obama’s web as to why he couldn’t attend the funeral mass. Probably a hot golf game.

Leaving you with this thought: On March 1, it’s Super Tuesday with 10 states (mainly southern states) involved and over 500 delegates at stake!
The sad reality is in the Democratic Party there are super delegates and regular delegates. The best way to explain is Democratic super delegates to the Party convention are usually members of the DNC and other state and federal officials who are allowed to endorse their own pick regardless of how their home state votes. Right now you’ll find that Hillary has a massive 362 – 8 super delegates lead over Sanders despite having been beaten badly by Sanders in New Hampshire and pretty much tied in Iowa. In regular delegates Sanders has a modest lead.  You’ve got to love these fixed elections. The GOP only has regular delegates!

Until next we

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