When Barack Obama won re-election in 2012, it felt like the start of a new political chapter. With the rise of younger, more diverse voters, many thought the Democratic Party was on the brink of a dominant future. But looking back, 2012 might actually mark the end of an era, the final victory of the 1960s social movements over the Reagan-era Republicans.
Instead, it’s the three Trump elections — in 2016, 2020, and 2024 — that seem to signal the start of a new political era, one centered on Donald Trump’s brand of conservative populism.
American politics has felt completely different since Trump made his grand entrance. The two parties now clash on things that once seemed like common ground, while also making surprising agreements on issues that used to drive a wedge between them. For anyone who grew up before Trump’s rise, it’s almost like politics have been flipped on their head.
Before Trump, things were more predictable. Republicans were the party of small government, fiscal conservatism, the religious right, and tough foreign policy. Democrats, on the other hand, were all about the working class, progress, and the causes championed by liberal activists. Every election focused on the same issues — war, taxes, family values, and free enterprise versus protecting jobs. These debates shaped the demographic divides and long-term electoral trends we knew well.
But Trump shook things up. Now, Republicans are fighting for the working class, opposing elites, and challenging America’s traditional foreign policy, while Democrats find themselves defending the establishment and the status quo.
Areas that were once bipartisan, like immigration, free trade, and support for democracy, have become major points of division. Meanwhile, both parties seem to have moved beyond bitter fights over issues like the Iraq War, Social Security, and same-sex marriage.
The traditional Republican establishment, from figures like the Cheneys and the Romneys, now feels like it doesn’t have a place in the party. Meanwhile, former Obama supporters — like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and even Elon Musk — find themselves aligning more with Trump’s world.
The result? The political coalitions are completely different. Trump’s 2016 victory brought a wave of support from white voters without a college degree, especially in states where Republicans had struggled before. And since then, Trump has also gained ground among younger, Black, Hispanic, and Asian voters — many of whom Democrats assumed were firmly against him.
The divide between white and nonwhite voters has shrunk to its smallest point since the 1964 Civil Rights Act, while the generation gap has narrowed significantly. Most notably, the old class divide between the rich and the poor seems to have disappeared. Trump actually lost voters making over $100,000 a year, but won the vote of people earning less — including those making under $50,000. This shift in class and education shows that old political lines are fading.
The real change is the growing divide between people with and without college degrees. This divide is now as significant as the income gap was in past elections, and it’s shaping how people vote in ways we haven’t seen before.
Is all of this a “realignment”? That depends on how you define it. A realignment typically means one party gains a lasting political advantage for decades. By that measure, the Trump years haven’t quite reshaped politics in a way that will last forever. But there’s no denying that Trump has changed the political conflict between the two parties, and it’s clear that his influence has changed the political coalitions as well.
This shift in politics isn’t just an American phenomenon. In countries around the world, the old industrial left-wing parties, like Labour in the UK or the Socialists in France, have lost working-class support to a new form of conservative populism. These movements focus on issues like immigration, trade, and national sovereignty — issues that don’t always fit into the traditional left-right spectrum.
Many of these populist movements argue that elites have used democratic institutions for their own gain, leaving ordinary people behind. While these movements haven’t yet formed stable majorities, their critique of the system has resonated with voters, especially those feeling left out of the global economy.
On the other hand, center-left parties are increasingly relying on the support of affluent college graduates. While these parties may still talk about helping the working class, it’s not their driving force anymore. Instead, they focus on progressive causes that often alienate working-class voters. Their fortunes now depend on coalitions with traditional conservatives who oppose the populist right on issues like trade, immigration, and foreign policy.
This shift away from class-based politics has been happening since the mid-20th century, when the rise of affluence and the safety net satisfied many of the demands of industrial labor. In the years that followed, a new generation of college-educated activists brought issues like civil rights, women’s rights, and the Vietnam War to the forefront, breaking up the New Deal coalition.
Obama’s 2012 victory was, in many ways, the last gasp of this old era. After all, Obama’s win was seen as the triumph of a liberal, multiracial, and secular society. America had elected a Black president and was on the verge of electing a female one. Same-sex marriage was gaining support, and marijuana legalization was on the horizon. It seemed like the demographic shifts would lead to a lasting Democratic majority.
But by 2016, Trump had destroyed what was left of the old Reagan coalition. He built his movement around new issues like immigration, trade, and the rise of the “woke” left. In doing so, he not only redefined the Republican Party but also led it to embrace policies that Democrats once championed — like trade protectionism, energy independence, and border security.
Even though Trump didn’t win a landslide in the 2016 election, he made his mark on American politics. His populist conservative agenda pushed Democrats to adopt some of his policies, though they’ve struggled with issues like abortion and democracy, which have hurt the Republican Party.
Whether you call it a “realignment” or not, one thing is clear: American politics is now in a new era, one that Trump helped define, and it doesn’t look like things will be going back to the way they were anytime soon.
